Timeline — ECB: interest rates and the presidential transition

5 November 2026Confirmed

ECB: Lagarde awaits data before judging a possible December rate rise

Christine Lagarde said in Milan on 5 November 2026 that incoming indicators would help the European Central Bank determine whether a rate rise was needed in December. She announced no decision.

Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament. — Archive portrait; does not show the Milan speech. © European Union 2023 – Source: EP, CC BY 4.0; existing crop. — © European Union 2023 – Source: EP / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; recadrage préexistant, sans modification supplémentaire.

The ECB president was speaking at a financial education event organised by the Osservatorio for Independent Thinking. Reuters and askanews reported that she stressed the difficulty of calibrating monetary policy when energy costs raise prices while weighing on activity.

The next revision of economic projections is due in December. Lagarde recalled that the Governing Council had unanimously chosen to keep rates unchanged at its last meeting after discussing an increase.

Her remarks leave a rise open as an option without making it certain. The deposit rate remains at 2.5%, the latest level cited by Reuters.

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3 November 2026Confirmed

ECB presidency nominations due by 6 November

Euro-area countries have until 6 November to nominate candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB president, a Eurogroup spokesperson said on 3 November 2026.

Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament, archive. — Archive portrait; not the 3 November announcement. © European Union 2023 – Source: EP, CC BY 4.0; existing crop. — © European Union 2023 – Source: EP / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; recadrage préexistant, sans modification supplémentaire.

Euro-area finance ministers are due to review the nominations at their 9 November meeting. The deadline begins the selection process; no successor has yet been appointed.

Lagarde announced in late October that she would leave early in February 2027. EU countries will appoint the next president on a recommendation from the countries using the euro.

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29 October 2026Confirmed

ECB holds interest rates as energy costs threaten inflation and growth

The European Central Bank left all three key interest rates unchanged on 29 October 2026. It warned that rising energy prices threaten both price stability and economic growth.

Archive portrait of Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament. — Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament, cropped archive photograph. This does not depict the announcements of 29 October 2026. — © European Union 2023 – Source: EP / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; recadrage préexistant, sans modification supplémentaire.

The deposit rate remains at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%, according to the Governing Council’s statement.

The ECB says underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far, but the scale and duration of the energy shock could lift inflation and weaken activity. It will continue to decide meeting by meeting, based on incoming data. The decision therefore commits the bank to neither an increase nor a cut at its next meeting.

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29 October 2026Confirmed

Christine Lagarde announces she will leave the ECB on 7 February 2027

Christine Lagarde announced on 29 October 2026 that she would step down as European Central Bank president on 7 February 2027. She therefore remains in office until the announced departure date.

The ECB says she informed the Governing Council and European Council President António Costa. Her successor will be appointed by the European Council under the procedure set out in Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

The announcement begins a leadership transition at the institution responsible for euro area monetary policy. It comes on the day the ECB holds rates while warning about the energy shock. The sources consulted do not yet establish who will succeed her.

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