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Oil: prices and Middle East supply risks

This dossier follows oil prices and supply risks linked to the Middle East, identifying contracts and comparison periods.

Last updated : 1 key moments
Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown.
Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown. — ESA / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/ ; Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 ; suppression de nuages préexistante, taille réduite.

Where things stand

At the 30 October 2026 close, December Brent settles at $117.64 and January Brent at $113.43. Market commentary links the rise to concerns about regional supply.

Reported information

Oil gains more than 2% amid Middle East supply concerns

Oil futures finished 30 October 2026 more than 2% higher. December Brent settled at $117.64 a barrel and WTI at $104.12, according to market reports, against a backdrop of concerns about Middle East supplies.

Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown.
Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown. — ESA / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/ ; Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 ; suppression de nuages préexistante, taille réduite.

The daily gains were 2.40% for December Brent and 2.08% for WTI. The December Brent contract was expiring; the more actively traded January contract finished at $113.43, up $2.63. These quotes concern two different delivery months.

EnergyNow and PFL associate the rise with risks around Hormuz and fears of renewed escalation involving Iran. This market interpretation does not quantify an additional interruption to deliveries: prices and physical damage must be distinguished.

Sources 4