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Oil: prices and Middle East supply risks

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This dossier follows oil prices and supply risks linked to the Middle East, identifying contracts and comparison periods.

Latest event : 2 key moments
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Strait of Hormuz, December 2020. Archive illustration; does not show the trading session. NASA GSFC, public domain.
Strait of Hormuz, December 2020. Archive illustration; does not show the trading session. NASA GSFC, public domain. — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team / NASA GSFC — Public domain. Acquired 2 December 2020; unmodified.

Where things stand

At the 4 November 2026 settlement, Brent stood at $94.62 (-8.7%) and WTI at $88.12 (-8.3%). De-escalation expectations in market commentary do not establish a peace agreement.

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Reported information

Brent falls 8.7% at settlement amid hopes of Iran de-escalation

Brent ended the 4 November 2026 session at $94.62 a barrel, down 8.7%, while WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12. Reuters and CNN describe a sharp reaction to US political prospects and the conflict with Iran.

Strait of Hormuz, December 2020. Archive illustration; does not show the trading session. NASA GSFC, public domain.
Strait of Hormuz, December 2020. Archive illustration; does not show the trading session. NASA GSFC, public domain. — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team / NASA GSFC — Public domain. Acquired 2 December 2020; unmodified.

The losses amount to $8.98 for Brent and $7.97 for WTI. These are settlement figures for November 4 and should not be presented as live November 5 quotations.

Reuters links the selling to investors' expectations that US election results could increase pressure for an end to the war. This market interpretation does not establish that a peace agreement has been concluded or that supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz have disappeared.

Sources 3
Reported information

Oil gains more than 2% amid Middle East supply concerns

Oil futures finished 30 October 2026 more than 2% higher. December Brent settled at $117.64 a barrel and WTI at $104.12, according to market reports, against a backdrop of concerns about Middle East supplies.

Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown.
Hormuz: satellite image published in 2021 using 2020 data, with some clouds removed. Illustration; no October 2026 incident is shown. — ESA / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/ ; Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2020 ; suppression de nuages préexistante, taille réduite.

The daily gains were 2.40% for December Brent and 2.08% for WTI. The December Brent contract was expiring; the more actively traded January contract finished at $113.43, up $2.63. These quotes concern two different delivery months.

EnergyNow and PFL associate the rise with risks around Hormuz and fears of renewed escalation involving Iran. This market interpretation does not quantify an additional interruption to deliveries: prices and physical damage must be distinguished.

Sources 4