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Morocco: HCP economic assessments and forecasts

This dossier follows the High Commission for Planning’s assessments of Morocco’s economy. It distinguishes activity estimates from forecasts and identifies their assumptions concerning domestic demand, production sectors and energy prices.

Last updated : 1 key moments

Where things stand

As of 14 October 2026, the HCP estimates third-quarter growth at 4.1% and forecasts 4.7% for the fourth quarter. Its central scenario assumes relatively stable energy prices and no further major shocks.

Reported information

Morocco: HCP forecasts 4.7% growth in the fourth quarter

In its assessment published on 14 October 2026, Morocco’s High Commission for Planning forecasts fourth-quarter growth of 4.7%. The projection assumes relatively stable energy prices and no further major shocks.

The HCP estimates annual economic growth at 4.1% in the third quarter. It identifies agriculture and services as the main drivers of activity, while secondary-sector activity would remain in decline.

For the fourth quarter, the institution also expects a recovery in extractive industries. It projects annual increases of 4.3% in household consumption and 6.8% in investment, supported by major infrastructure projects.

The assessment highlights the risk of worsening energy tensions. Conversely, lower oil prices and improved supplies could bring growth to around 5.3%. These figures are HCP estimates and scenarios, rather than final economic results.

Sources 4