The HCP estimates annual economic growth at 4.1% in the third quarter. It identifies agriculture and services as the main drivers of activity, while secondary-sector activity would remain in decline.
For the fourth quarter, the institution also expects a recovery in extractive industries. It projects annual increases of 4.3% in household consumption and 6.8% in investment, supported by major infrastructure projects.
The assessment highlights the risk of worsening energy tensions. Conversely, lower oil prices and improved supplies could bring growth to around 5.3%. These figures are HCP estimates and scenarios, rather than final economic results.